I'm writing this note as we edge closer towards the holiday season. And of course, as we are every year, we're shocked as to how quickly the year has flown by. I find this interesting in our species. The calendar doesn't change each year. December comes around at the same time, every year, as sure as the sun rises each morning. Yet, we are shocked.

Last week I wrote a piece on inflation, US mid-terms and stocks. I outlined the fall of inflation since its peak of June 2022. We also looked at how quickly inflation has risen since 2021, and the expectations for it based on historical events.

I didn't write a note last week. I almost felt like I couldn't keep up. There was so much going on. From inflation, to US mid-term elections, to stock market rallies. Here's my wrap up and thoughts.

When the market is volatile, investors yearn for stability, and when we have stablily, investors become complacent. The market will give you exactly what you need. And right now, the stock market is teaching you a number of lessons. Some investors will learn lessons from what is unfolding, and most will continue to be flung around like a rag doll.

There are so many reasons to be gloomy in markets right now. I won't go through them. They're all wrapped up in September's -9.2% for the S&P 500 - the worst September since 2002, when the index fell by -11%.

Welcome back. I'd like to say it's nice to be back in Melbourne having returned from Bali, but I can't. Really. I mean, 6:30 am it's 26 degress, sunhsine, not a cloud in the sky, morning runs, massages, Bintangs, nasi goreng, and a few client calls - it was pretty good.