Stock Market Expectations Last week I wrote about whether the stock market had bottomed out. Since then, I feel like every single piece of news or analysis I read is uber bearish.

They say, don't try to catch a falling knife. Unfortunately there is no rule of thumb of measurement for the duration or magnitude of a falling knife - just don't catch one.

My wife and I decided to put our home up for sale some months ago. If you've ever sold your family home, you know how time consuming it can be - decluttering, packing, staging, and getting to all those things you never seemed to be able to get to over the years, yet miraculously you get to it in a matter of only a few weeks. The designer, photographer, and copywriter did an amazing job. They made me want to buy back my own house. I guess you know they've done a good job if that happens.

I think we're over the coldest time of the year, thank goodness. I love summer. The warm mornings, glorious days, and warm evenings, aircon breezing through the house, and the chirping of crickets in the evening. Oh, and how can we forget the tennis - the Australian Open. It can be such a fast paced game, especially when you watch some of the best in the world. The closer you get, there is so much action going on, left, right, backward, forward, slipping and sliding, backhands, forehands, volley, half-volley, it's actually crazy how athletic these guys and gals are at the top level. Sitting at home and watching the game, it feels nothing like this. It appears far less advanced and a lot slower. I feel like what is going on in financial markets right now is like this. Interest rates are on the rise.

Markets are collapsing. The headlines are piercing. Investors are crumbling. In fact, investors have been selling down stocks at a rate not seen since the GFC, and depending on which metrics you use, since 1975. In the chart below I have plotted the valuation change, year on year, and you can see the absolute cliff that is valuation compression since this time last year. As quickly as we saw valuations sky rocket last year (I'm not going to go into the reasons here), valuations have fallen even quicker - 2021 was insane, and we're now paying for it.

Rates are rising. We all know this. In fact, the market has already priced in central rates at between 2%-3% depending on what time frame you are looking at. Stock markets are adjusting their valuations. Crypto has collapsed. Private Equity and Venture are probably yet to feel the full force of these devaluations. The property market is still functioning, however listings are falling and prices are falling. Who said property doesn't go down?