They say the bond markets, rather that the stock markets, are a better guide to the future. For decades, the bond market has done a far better job than the stock market in predicting economic downturns.

I took my two young boys (three and six) to a skate park down the road from our place - we'd never been. The park was full of thrill seeking teenagers wearing super long t-shirts sucking down Slurpee's from the 7-Eleven across the road.

It was 1998. My friends and I would book the one computer that was connected to the internet at our local computer shop - 4:00 pm, after school. Enough time for us to order chips from the fish n chip shop across the road, lick our oily fingers and wipe them dry on our grey school trousers. We would then cross the road to what would be the most fascinating yet most confusing 10 minutes of the day - to surf the net. It would cost $10 for 10 minutes - and it was the slowest thing ever. Yet we would not know it at the time. I think that computer store is now a kebab shop - I must confess, I have not been.

They trade at a multiple of almost 42 times their earnings, more than double the S&P's average of almost 19 times. Investors are falling over each other to get their hands on the Blue Chip companies - all with proven records of growth. Amongst them, IBM, Xerox, General Electric, Avon Products, Polaroid, and Eastman Kodak. What followed was a decline in investment by 60%. This was 1972.