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Rates, Stocks - A Halloween Special
If you live around Melbourne's eastern suburbs, you may have attended "Halloween" at Greythorn Central in Balwyn last week. My two boys dressed up as Squid Game. Here they are, dressed up and ready to take your lollies - crazy kids. And no, they have not watched the series. You can thank Mr Beast forthe education.
The Market Ahead
Thank goodness the third quarter of 2023 is over. September was just a washout. Most asset classes and most country stock markets were down for the quarter, even though July was a solid month to the upside. Having said this, the US stock market (S&P 500) is still up about 13%, and the Nasdaq 100 up about 35% for the year.
Where is The Excess Property Supply?
Wait for spring they said. Property will flood the market they said. It will pull prices down they said. Yet here we are, one third of the way through spring and national prices up 2.5% for the quarter (ending 30 September 2023). Anyone annualising these numbers? 10% pa. Any takers? I thought not.
VC Valuations Down 50%
It's 2020. The world has been hit with a global pandemic. Stocks fall the fastest and sharpest on record, and for the shortest duration. Things that couldn't or shouldn't happening are happening everywhere you look. Stocks bottom out in March of 2020 and are off into bull market territory - yet no one believes the market.
Rate Hikes to Rate Cuts in 8 Months
And just like that the school holidays are over. I celebrated another birthday, and the Pies won another flag - the best birthday present I could ask for, how good. My wife and I took the boys on a road trip for two weeks - up from Melbourne, through Glenrowan and Gundagai, up to Bondi and down along the coast through Narooma, Jervis Bay, Pambula, and Lakes Entrance. We had such a blast, lot's of family time in nature, our thing.
The Most Widely Anticipated Recession. Ever.
It's Saturday night as I write this post. The suitcases are packed, boys are in bed, and we're off to Bondi tomorrow morning for the school holidays - family road trip in the Tesla. This will be the longest we've travelled in the EV and I'm really looking forward to it. We did a trip to Falls Creek not that long ago and it worked like a dream. I'll be skipping next week's note as I spend time with my wife and boys.
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