Welcome to summer. Welcome to December. And just like that, the bulls are on the move and the bears are back in hibernation. November was one for the history books. In years to come, we’ll look back at November 2023 as one of the strongest months for financial markets in history. Not only were markets robust, they were also downright broad and inclusive. The S&P 500 advanced 8.9% (Nasdaq 11%), its 18th biggest monthly gain since 1950, and 6th best November since 1930.

There's a lot I've been thinking about lately. You'd think that as we approach the end of the year, the noise in financial markets would lessen. Alas, we are not there yet.

I attended a conference down on the Mornington Peninsula last week. It's such a beautiful place down that way. In less than one hour, you're in a different world. One where the ocean breeze gently touches your skin. One where the air is fresh and crisp high up in the mountains. Food just tastes better. My mind stops racing. And I feel myself more present in the moment. It's also a place where economists and financial experts gather to ignite a financial frenzy. The perpetual search for the next recession or crash — and the longing for a return to pre-COVID prices, office life, or trade — risk blinding us to the economic realities of the present.

It was mid October 2022 when the stock market bottomed out following the tech recession. The stock market rallied +28% to the end of July 2023 before falling -10.14% to the end of October 2023. Since then, we have seen the market rally about +7.23% in 10 trading days.

It's Tuesday afternoon as I write this post. I have no idea what happened in the Melbourne Cup. I have not the faintest interest. The RBA hiked rates by 0.25% thanks to the price of fuel (see chart below). It's pretty hard to control fuel prices with local rate hikes, but then again, crazier things have happened before. I feel like the RBA has been so behind the eight ball in the past that they don't want to be caught out again. They've based their decision on their forecasts, which have been terribly wrong in the past, so I don't know why their confidence in their own forecasts remains so high. And WeWork files for bankruptcy in the US as it grappled with pricey leases it had signed before the COVID-19 pandemic and weak occupancy rates as hybrid working gained popularity.

If you live around Melbourne's eastern suburbs, you may have attended "Halloween" at Greythorn Central in Balwyn last week. My two boys dressed up as Squid Game. Here they are, dressed up and ready to take your lollies - crazy kids. And no, they have not watched the series. You can thank Mr Beast forthe education.