What Happens at All Time Highs

Despite all the headlines during 2026, the S&P 500 is sitting at 7,722. Another record. But what does it mean for investors?

Fair enough. It feels like it should be too late. It rarely is.

2026 hasn't been quiet

The index fell 7.1% by early April. Plenty of people were calling the top. Remember the SaaSpocalypse? And then it climbed again. Through 28 September, the S&P 500 is up 13.2% on a total return basis.

A typical year since 1990 sits at roughly 7% by this point and finishes around 12%. So we're already ahead of the average full year, with a quarter still to go.

27 record highs, so what?

That's the count so far this year. It sounds like a lot. It isn't unusual. 2025 had 39. 2024 had 57. 1995 had 77, and it returned close to 38%.

Record highs aren't a warning sign. They're what a rising market looks like.

The odds have always favoured the investor

Since 1949 there have been 13 bull markets and 12 bear markets. The average bear lasts about a year and costs the investor about 31%. The average bull lasts 5.3 years and returns the investor 254%. Add up the time, and the market has spent roughly 84% of the last 77 years in a bull market.

Today's bull is 1.4 years old and up 56%. That's young by historical standards.

Buying at the top hasn't hurt

Investors who put money in on a day the market closed at a new high have done slightly better than everyone else:

• 1 year: 13.6% vs 12.0%
• 3 years: 46% vs 40%
• 5 years: 82% vs 74%

Strength has tended to follow strength. It's an average, not a promise.

An honest caveat

Highs don't prevent bear markets. 2000 and 2007 both had new highs. Both were followed by drawdowns of 47% and 55%. Bear markets happen, and they hurt. But look at the long-run chart. Every one of them is a dip in a line that keeps going up.

The risk isn't owning at a record high. It's sitting in cash waiting for a "better" entry and missing the 254%.

In equity markets, volatility is not the enemy. It's the price investors pay for higher returns over the long run.

Take the long view.